Rome, 20 June – Italian healthcare expenditure is destined to increase considerably. Arriving, by 2040, to reach the record figure of almost 6 thousand US dollars each: +2.6% compared to that of 2013. In line with the increase expected for all the nations of the world considered high-income (+2 ,7%).
According to a study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and created by researchers from theInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, driven by Joseph Dieleman, published in the number 387 of The Lancet of 18-24 June 2016, the cost of health, both public and private, will grow in all countries of the globe. In the quarter of the century considered, the increase in spending will be 2.7 per year in high-income countries, 3.4% in upper-middle income countries, 3% in lower-middle income countries and finally 2.4% in the lowest-income countries.
In absolute terms, global spending on health will go from the $7.83 trillion touched in 2013 to the $18.28 trillion expected in 2040.
PAs far as Italy is concerned, the report estimates an annual growth rate of 2.6%, which – if confirmed – would lead in 25 years to a per capita health expenditure (public and private) equal to 5,968 dollars, in a range fluctuating a minimum of 5,013 and a maximum of 6,804 dollars.
The 2013 figure for our country, equal to 3,077 dollars, would therefore be practically doubled, in a framework which would in any case substantially confirm the preponderant coverage of expenditure by the public health system (almost 80% of the total). The impact on GDP would go from 9.1% in 2013 to 11.1% in 2014 (with a fluctuation between a minimum of 9.3 and a maximum of 12.6%).
The PDF of the research published on The Lancet is made available for free full consultation on the platform WEST – Territorial Welfare Society, at this link)
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