In the medium term, a moderate growth trend is expected for the Italian pharmaceutical market, a good half of which will take place outside the pharmacy. In fact, in the period 2011-2017 Ims Health estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) equal to 1% and expects that the 50% of the market will materialize, in fact, above all in non-retail channels. From 2009 to 2011 – as recalled in a report prepared for Pharmakronos – growth was slowed down by about one percentage point each year and in 2012 this evolution was accentuated leading to a trend of -0.7% on the total market.
From now to the next three years, the recovery will be contained. Among the reasons Ims Health indicates the austerity programs and the containment of healthcare costs, implemented as a result of the economic crisis; the intensification of initiatives to increase the use of generic drugs (which currently account for 12.4% of pharmaceutical expenditure) and to limit the reimbursement of medicines, due to the few patents expected to expire; the spread of 'value-based pricing' policies, i.e. fixing the price on the basis of the value of a drug, evaluated according to a series of new methodologies; finally, the growing restrictions also on hospital pharmaceutical expenditure.
Barbara Di Chiara – May 30, 2013 – PharmaKronos
