Based on current forecasts, the 20 largest drugs in the Pharma pipeline will generate approximately $40 billion in global sales by 2020.
This figure will almost certainly undergo some revision as the end of the decade approaches, but confidence in the commercial viability of many of these key drugs continues to gain momentum.
Oncology drugs dominate the list, with immunotherapies in particular expected to make a major commercial impact by 2020. The four PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors currently in development are all expected to produce blockbuster sales by the end of the decade, with nivolumab Of Bristol–Myers Squibb and with pembrolizumab Of Merck & Co. anticipated to be the two largest opportunities in the overall pipeline.
A number of yet-to-be-launched cancer therapies outside the immuno-oncology sector are also expected to rapidly become reality by 2020, including palbociclib Of Pfizer for the treatment of breast cancer e ABT-199 Of AbbVie / Roche, which is expected to emerge as another paradigm for the treatment of leukemia.
The next five years should also see a race for market leadership between AstraZeneca and Clovis Oncology in non-small cell lung cancer where new product offerings from both companies (azd–9291 And CO–1686) should become blockbusters.
Other molecules, with positive predictions, are neratinib, audivant in extensive breast cancer, and Evolocumab di Amgen And alirocumab Of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals/Sanofi both of which represent other big opportunities for Pharma's pipeline.
Recent weeks have seen analysts substantially raise their predictions for neratinib Puma biotechnology – based on positive Phase III data as an adjuvant of extensive HER2-positive breast cancer. If confidence in these numbers is maintained as even further data releases, Puma looks certain to gain interest as a potential revenue candidate.
The above list excludes Gilead Sciences' Sovaldi + ledipasvir combination for hepatitis C – due to launch in late 2014 – given Sovaldi's existing presence on the market. However, confidence remains high, despite the spectacular launch performance of Sovaldi, the size of the hepatitis C market will also support billions of dollars for the launch of both AbbVie and Merck (the latter boosted by its recent acquisition of Idenix Pharmaceuticals). .
PCSK-9 inhibitors evolocumab (Amgen) and alirocumab (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals/Sanofi) have the hallmarks for the largest pharma pipeline opportunities, though recent regulatory moves preclude difference on sales consensus.
Source: http://www.firstwordpharma.com/node/1228219#axzz39RHfBXvO August 4, 2014
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