In the three-year period 2016-2018, the market for non-prescription drugs is expected to grow moderately (+1.5% this year, +2.2% next year, +1.9% in 2018) driven mainly by OTCs, i.e. "non-prescription" authorized for advertising. This is the estimate offered by the 2016 edition of Numbers and indices of self-medication, the usual report with which Assosalute annually photographs trends and prospects of the sector. In distribution these days (and downloadable in pdf format from site of the producers' association) the publication proposes a moderately encouraging balance sheet for the past year and much more cautious projections for the three-year period to come.
As always, seasonality was decisive: in 2015 the Sop totaled sales in values of approximately 2.5 million euros, up by 3.2% compared to the previous year thanks mainly to a «greater diffusion of flu and colds syndromes » in the season between 2014 and 2015. In the last two months of the year, on the other hand, there was «a lower incidence of the typical ailments of the cold season», which ended up jeopardizing the growth in consumption (which in fact remained stable compared to 2014).
The data on per capita expenditure is also worthy of attention: in 2015, every Italian spent an average of 288.2 euros on the purchase of medicines, a slight increase (one euro) on the previous year. Out of the total, 90.6 euros were spent on non-refundable drugs and of these 41.2 euros represent the per capita expenditure on non-prescription drugs (of which 38.1 euros spent in pharmacies). This last figure, however, varies considerably according to the geographical area, due to the different spending capacities of the inhabitants and cultural orientations: in the North it rises to 45.4 euros, in the Center it settles at 44.6 euros, in the South drops to 33.6 euros, almost 8 euros less than the national average.
The forecasts for this year and the following two derive from the 2015 photograph. Thus, the estimates assume for the current three-year period a stable or moderately growing consumption trend, with a persistent gap between volumes (conditioned by seasonality) and values (i.e. turnover) thanks to the action of the consumption mix which favors products younger. Obviously, the evaluations would vary in the event of significant changes in the regulatory framework: for example, writes Assosalute, the abolition of the traditional distinction between Otc and Sp (without advertising) and the admission of all Sop to communication to the public would trigger greater investments in advertising by companies and "it would allow the NHS to save resources for the management of mild pathologies, with a view to greater sustainability of public pharmaceutical expenditure".
Related news: Absolutehealth. Numbers and indices of self-medication
